2.1. How do migrants fare in the local labour market?
Between Census years, up-to-date information on the labour-market outcomes of migrants at the local authority level is relatively limited. For many local authorities, NOMIS provides data on the employment rate, unemployment rate and economic inactivity rate for working-age non-UK born people, broken down by white and non-white ethnicity (select ‘Country of birth’ from the ‘Category’ filter). The available data are estimates based on the APS and also come with confidence intervals.
Figure 13 provides estimates of the employment rates for foreign-born individuals in the year ending March 2019. Some areas do not have an estimate because the sample size size for foreign-born people with white or non-white ethnicity (or both) is too small.
Another source of data on local labour market activity and related information is the 2011 Census. Labour market conditions have changed considerably since 2011 and so indicators like employment rates are likely to have changed too. However, there are some circumstances in which census data may still be helpful – in examining differences in outcomes between migrants from different countries of origin, for example. Users should bear in mind that the gaps between different groups do not necessarily remain constant over time and are affected by factors such as the duration of residence in the country.
Census data allow detailed breakdowns of outcomes of different groups by local authority. For example, relevant Census tables for England and Wales include:
Counts of the non-UK born by economic activity, including employees vs. self-employed (both full-time vs. part time), students, and long-term vs. short-term unemployed: Table LC6203EW and Table DC6210EW (the latter has a more detailed country of birth variable).
The same factors, with additional breakdowns by age and sex: Table DC6203EW.
Table DC6218EW: counts of the non-UK born by ‘social grade’ approximated based on occupation of employment.
NHS Digital produces figures on the proportion of GPs in England, by Clinical Commissioning Group, whose primary medical qualification was acquired outside of the UK. These data can be accessed and are visualised in the ONS publication International migration and the healthcare workforce (see Figure 9).
Figure 13: Employment rates of the white, ethnic minority and total foreign-born population, aged 16-64, by local authority in Great Britain (April 2018-March 2019)
The Annual Population Survey (APS), which is used for the ONS publication, Population of the UK by country of birth and nationality, is a survey of households in the UK. The National Records of Scotland (NRS) also uses the APS to provide estimates specific to Scottish local authorities, in a similar publication called Population by Country of Birth and Nationality. APS estimates are not available for local authorities in Northern Ireland. The APS does not cover all migrants: estimates exclude people living in communal establishments – e.g. hotels, caravan parks and other communal establishments – and may undercount subgroups of people with lower-than-average response rates to the survey, as well as recently arrived, or short-term migrants. Response rates have declined over the past 20 years.
Margins of error in survey data
Caution must be used when examining estimates of small groups because of margins of error. Estimates represent what is considered to be the most likely figure, but the true number could be higher or lower. APS and IPS data are reported with 95% confidence intervals which indicate the margins of error. For example, the estimated non-UK born population residing in the UK in 2018 was 9,342,000, with a confidence interval of +/- 146,000. One effect of this is that it may not be sensible to make too much of the difference between two estimates – small differences may result from statistical noise rather than real changes in the population. Users should look at the trend over several years as in some cases the apparent year on year change may be misleading.
In some local areas, confidence intervals are quite wide relative to estimates of the population of interest. For example, the estimated non-EU born population living in Sunderland was 8,000 in 2017 and 2018, with a confidence interval of +/-4,000. The corresponding estimate for the year 2016 was 6,000. In other words, the data do not show with certainty that the non-EU born population of Sunderland changed between 2016 and 2018.
